2026 Phillies
2026 Phillies Preview
Strong NL East contenders, but a longshot to get to the World Series
The Philadelphia Phillies made few substantial moves in the offseason and appear farther away from contending for the National League championship than last year.
But they should be highly competitive and battle the New York Mets for the National League East title – and, at the least, be in the mix for a wildcard spot.
“We can’t forget that we won 96 games last year, and we have a really good club,” manager Rob Thomson said early in spring training. “We’re going to turn over probably 20 or 25 percent of our roster…I like the improvements we made to our bullpen, and we’re going to probably inject some youth into our team.”
He said he was “more excited” than he was during spring training in 2025. “I think we’re better on this day than we were at this time last year.”
Whether Thomson was being overly optimistic remains to be seen. The fact is, the Phils failed to add a much-needed player who gets on base frequently, didn’t get a significant replacement for reliable starting pitcher Ranger Suarez (12-8, 3.20 ERA) and didn’t do much to upgrade their weak outfield. They tried to sign infielder Bo Bichette, who would have greatly improved their lineup, but he spurned them and went to the Mets.
“It’s a gut punch,” said Dave Dombrowski, the Phils’ president of baseball operations. He added, “You have to pick yourself up and shake it off.”
The Phillies, who went 96-66 last season, are an aging team that is a year older.
That said, they should be a strong contender in the National League East, which they won by 13 games in 2025.
It should be a much closer race this season. The Mets figure to be their main competition. New York lost some key players (Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Diaz), but it also added some impressive reinforcements, led by Bichette, Freddy Peralta and Jorge Polanco. The projected top of the lineup – Francisco Lindor (31 HRs, 31 SBs), Juan Soto (43 HRs, 38 SBs), Bichette (.311, 18 HRs, 94 RBIs, .357 on-base percentage) and Polanco (26 HRs) – looks more imposing than the Phillies’ productive Big Four.
Atlanta could make it a three-team race, but has again been hit by injuries and a suspension this spring.
So, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Phillies won another East title, this time in a tight race with the Mets.
Overtaking the two-time World Series champion Dodgers in the National League, however, looks highly improbable. The Dodgers, unlike the Phillies, got even stronger in the offseason by adding outfielder Kyle Tucker and closer Diaz.
For the Phillies to perform beyond expectations, they need centerfielder Justin Crawford and righthander Andrew Painter to have terrific rookie seasons. Both are highly regarded.
It would also help their chances if Bryce Harper and Bryson Stott bounced back from “just OK” seasons, and Aaron Nola rebounded from a year he’d like to forget.
The one area where the Phillies have greatly improved is the bullpen. If their starters can leave games with a lead, the Phils will be in good shape because of a potentially dominant relief group.
Thomson is high on the bullpen, along with an under-the-radar addition: The hiring of Don Mattingly as bench coach. Mattingly’s son, Preston, is the Phils’ general manager.
The addition of Mattingly boosts the coaching staff because of his long and outstanding career as the Yankees first baseman. He was also a manager with the Dodgers (2011-15) and Marlins (2016-22) before being Toronto’s bench coach the last three seasons.
“He understands the ups and downs of the game,” Thomson said. “They can lean on Donnie.”
OUTFIELD
Crawford, 22, is expected to play centerfield and is coming off a sensational triple-A season (.334, .411 on-base percentage, 46 SBs) Brandon Marsh (.280, 11 HRs) and Otto Kemp (.234, 8 HRs ) should divide the left-field duties, and newcomer Adolis Garcia (.227, 19 HRs) has replaced the strikeout-prone Nick Castellanos (.250, 17 HRs) in right.
The Phillies, who for some reason didn’t re-sign underrated centerfielder Harrison Bader, are hopeful Garcia, 33, who has had consecutive seasons in which he batted below .230, can look more like the player who keyed Texas’ World Series title in 2023, a year in which he smacked 39 homers and drove in 107 runs. He is a much better fielder than Castellanos.
Phillies outfielders combined to hit just 57 home runs last year; only five major-league teams had outfielders who hit fewer homers.
That needs to improve greatly.
INFIELD
The infield is the same as last year, and that’s not a bad thing. Third baseman Alec Bohm (.287, 11 HRs), shortstop Trea Turner (.304, 15 HRs, 36 SBs), second baseman Stott (.257, 13 HRs, 24 SBs) and first baseman Harper (.261, 27 HRs, 75 RBIs) return and will try to help the Phils get to the World Series for the first time since 2022.
Turner became the first Phillies player to win the batting title since Richie Ashburn in 1958, but his home-run total dropped to 15 – his lowest full-season total since 2017 with Washington.
Harper had a decent season for most first basemen, but it was below his own standard.
Dombrowski caused a stir in the offseason when talking about Harper’s hitting compared to previous seasons.
“Can he rise to the next level again? I don’t really know the answer to that,” he said. “He’s the one that will dictate that more than anything else. I don’t think he’s content with the year that he had. Again, it wasn’t a bad year. But when you think of Bryce Harper, you think of elite, you think of one of the top 10 players in baseball, and I don’t think it fit into that category.”
Harper, a two-time National League MVP, missed a month last season with a wrist injury and admitted he “didn’t have the year I wanted.”
During spring training this year, Harper told reporters he doesn’t get motivated “by that kind of stuff” – he was referring to Dombrowski’s comments. The comments, he said, are “kind of wild to me still,” and he added he believed they should have been kept in-house.
catcher
When the Bichette signing didn’t work out, the Phils were able to resign J.T. Realmuto and that was important because they have no one in the system who is close to the catcher’s ability – even at age 35. Realmuto batted .257 with 12 homers last year and his production increased in the second half.
Designated hitter
The Phillies re-signed Kyle Schwarber to a five-year, $150 million contract in December, and that was important not just because of his power – he led the NL in homers (career-high 56) and RBIs (career-high 132) – but because he is a clubhouse leader. He also gets on base a lot (.365).
starting rotation
A lot of the Phils’ success will hinge on the health of Zack Wheeler (10-5, 2.71 ERA, 195 Ks), who is making a comeback from thoracic outlet decompression surgery on Sept. 23.
The Phils hope Wheeler returns at some point in April.
The Phillies’ rotation without Wheeler will probably look like this: Cristopher Sanchez (13-5, 2.50, 212 Ks), last year’s Cy Young runner-up, Jesus Luzardo (15-7, 3.92, 216 Ks), Nola (5-10, 6.01), Taijuan Walker (5-8, 4.08) and the promising Painter. Painter is two-plus years removed from Tommy John surgery and should be back to form after struggling in the minors last year (5-8, 5.26).
Losing Suarez to Boston (5 years, $130 million) in free agency, Wheeler’s uncertainty, and Painter’s unknown major-league ability gives the rotation some question marks, but the potential is there.
bullpen
This is the team’s biggest strength. By far.
They have a strong closer, Jhoan Duran (2.06 ERA, 1.10 WHIP), who was acquired from Minnesota at last year’s trade deadline. They have Jose Alvarado, the big lefty who received an 80-game PED suspension in 2025, and he should be a quality setup man. Oh, and they signed free-agent Brad Keller (2.07, 0.96 WHIP), who was outstanding last year with the Cubs. Keller figures to be the right-handed setup man.
In addition, Orion Kerkering (8-4, 3.30), provided he recovers from The Errant Throw Heard Around Philly, and lefty Tanner Banks (3.07, 1.01 WHIP) are dependable. They also acquired Jonathan Bowlan (3.86, 1.22 WHIP) and lefthander Kyle Backhus (4.62, 1.42 WHIP) to give them depth, though they did lose Matt Strahm (2.74, 1.08 WHIP) in a salary-dump deal with Kansas City that brought the less-expensive Bowlan to Philadelphia.
bottom line
On paper, this looks like one of the Phillies’ best bullpens in years.
prediction
Phils go 90-72, win the NL East, but again fall in the opening playoff round, putting Thomson on the hot seat.
